Cris Alarcon]
The City of Placerville has put forward a proposed letter to the State Governor to Loosen restriction on local business. The proposed letter rest on a fundamental premise that the lower population density of the area equates to a lower transmission rate of COVID.
In testing that premise with statistical analysis of known data a concerning trend was exposed in the El Dorado Hills area.
The analysis supports the given premise that the lower population density of rural areas in our locale reduces the spread of COVID-19.
Of concern is that El Dorado Hills continues to increase in confirmed cases of the coronavirus and Density cannot be responsible for the rate of increase in the El Dorado Hills area.
Either the basic premise is incorrect or something other than Density is casing a spike in cases in El Dorado Hills. Comparative analysis of both cities and counties support the premise of lower population densities resulting in a slower spread of the Coronavirus so it is reasonable to conclude that something independent of the population density variable is causing a notable increase in cases in the East end of the county.
Two possible variables may be in actions:
1) Drastic Travel and Commerce restrictions are in play in both of the incorporated cities of El Dorado County – the City of Placerville and the City of South Lake Tahoe;
2) The East end of both El Dorado County and Placer County are experiencing much higher rates of confirmed cases of COVID-19 – El Dorado Hills and Roseville respectively.
Fact-Base criticism, amplification, and contribution to this ongoing analysis are invited in the comment sections of this story. Additional analysis will attempt to explain the statistically significant anomaly that counters the preponderance of data examined.
Cris Alarcon.
About Post Author
