{"id":3503,"date":"2022-02-25T16:59:58","date_gmt":"2022-02-26T00:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.newsmolo.com\/EDC\/2019\/?p=3503"},"modified":"2022-02-25T22:15:08","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T06:15:08","slug":"us-employs-unusual-intel-strategy-to-counter-putin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.newsmolo.com\/EDC\/2019\/2022\/02\/25\/us-employs-unusual-intel-strategy-to-counter-putin\/","title":{"rendered":"US Employs Unusual Intel Strategy to Counter Putin"},"content":{"rendered":"

[LAURA KELLY\u00a0<\/a>AND\u00a0MORGAN CHALFANT<\/a>]<\/p>\n

The White House has aggressively worked to rebut false narratives emanating from Russia about the crisis in Ukraine by proactively releasing intelligence information, a highly unusual strategy that experts and former officials say has knocked Russian President\u00a0Vladimir Putin<\/a><\/span>\u00a0off his game.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The tactic didn\u2019t prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, but experts credit it with scrambling and defanging some of the Russian plots to create a false justification for an invasion, as well as preparing the world to react quickly.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt didn\u2019t deter them, but it disrupted what they were doing and I think short circuited some of their plans,\u201d said Clint Watts, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

President Biden<\/a><\/span>\u00a0credited this strategy in a speech from the White House on Thursday,\u00a0making clear on the world stage that \u201cPutin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe have been transparent with the world \u2014 we shared declassified intelligence about Russia\u2019s plans and cyber attacks and false pretexts \u2014 so that there can be no confusion or cover up,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vladim\u00edr Bil\u010d\u00edk, head of the European Parliament\u2019s Committee on Foreign Interference, told The Hill that the blunt and dire warnings from the U.S. took away Putin\u2019s ability to benefit from the element of surprise.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis transparency, this quick exposure and this intelligence sharing has been extremely useful because I think it has pointed to a number of weak points in Russia\u2019s strategy. There has been little element of surprise in terms of what\u2019s to come,\u201d he said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The decision by the U.S. to proactively share intelligence widely and publicly to rebut Russian narratives represented a shift and desire on the part of the administration to take a bolder approach than Obama administration officials in 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine\u2019s Crimean Peninsula.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe were hampered by our cautiousness regarding our sharing of intelligence,\u201d said Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia under the Obama administration at the time of the 2014 invasion.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the worst-case scenario came to pass on Wednesday night, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, carrying out attack plans earlier published by the U.K. Foreign Ministry of Defense that showed an extraordinary map with Putin\u2019s \u201cpossible axis of invasion,\u201d a phase one invasion from seven areas including Belarus, Russia and occupied Crimea.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFor weeks, for weeks, we have been warning that this would happen. And now it’s unfolding largely as we predicted,\u201d Biden said on Thursday.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. officials and experts say that while the publication of Putin\u2019s plans has failed to deter him, it has served to unite allies and partners to react in quick coordination and has primed domestic audiences to support imposing consequences.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This includes unity among the 27-nation bloc of the European Union, which convened two meetings in quick succession to discuss and vote on sanctions packages against Russia and Putin personally for invading Ukraine, as well as Moscow\u2019s recognition as independent territories in Ukraine\u2019s Donbas region.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Germany also moved quickly to suspend a Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2, a serious point of contention between Berlin and Washington and other countries in Europe.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m glad that Germany finally came around and, clearly stating, Nord Stream 2 is off the table,\u201d Bil\u010d\u00edk, who is from Slovakia and is a member of the Group of the European People’s Party (Christian Democrats). \u201cThis is a project that cannot have a future at all.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A recent\u00a0<\/span>Washington Post-ABC News poll<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>found 67 percent of U.S. adults support sanctions on Russia, though Biden received negative marks overall for the way he has handled the crisis.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe right control of the narrative is important for setting the background against which governments will make decisions,\u201d said Daniel Fried, who served as U.S. ambassador to Poland and is a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council. \u201cSo, high marks to the Biden people, they\u2019re all in. This is crisis mode, all the senior officials are all in on this. I don\u2019t think Putin expected that.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the U.S. and its allies have been proactive in calling out Putin\u2019s falsehoods against Ukraine on the world stage, the Russian leader has focused on his domestic audience, airing grievances against the West to convince the Russian people of a need to invade Ukraine.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But protests inside Russia have emerged over the past 36 hours in some 54 cities. These demonstrations are a strong signal of outrage and pushback against Putin among the Russian public, given the Kremlin\u2019s crackdown on free speech.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At least 1,745 people were reportedly arrested.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf you actually get people turning out and they can be fairly assured that they\u2019re going to be arrested \u2026 I think is an incredibly informative signal to other Russians watching, that there are a lot of people out there who share your discontent about the regime,\u201d Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the transatlantic security program with the Center for a New American Security, said during a panel discussion. \u201cSo this can turn into a cascade effect.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, it\u2019s unlikely to spur regime change in the near-term, given Putin\u2019s tight grip on power.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI think the most analytically objective answer is, there\u2019s little prospect for instability inside Russia,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s control of Russian media hampers the ability of the U.S. and other countries to break through to Russian audiences, and the Kremlin has sought to further restrict outside information from other sources.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian officials on Friday took moves to restrict Facebook, in an action the social media company said was retaliation for countering disinformation and as a tool for activists to organize protests.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOrdinary Russians are using [Meta Platform Incs.] apps to express themselves and organize for action. We want them to continue to make their voices heard, share what\u2019s happening, and organize through Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger,\u201d Nick Clegg, Facebook parent company Meta\u2019s vice president of global affairs, wrote on Twitter.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Countering Russian information operations, both covert and overt, will continue to challenge the Biden administration as it seeks to maintain unity among allies, partners and the global community in support of Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Watts predicted that Russia would look to find sympathetic audiences in European countries, like supporters of far-right politicians in France and the U.K.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI think the first wave of disinformation is done already and we\u2019re looking to see where they pivot next,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the crosshairs is Russian state-backed media outlets like RT and Sputnik news. The State Department\u2019s bureau on identifying and combating disinformation campaigns, the Global Engagement Center, described those outlets in a January report as \u201ccritical elements in Russia\u2019s disinformation and propaganda ecosystem.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The British government on Thursday accused RT of being a tool of Kremlin disinformation and asked the UK media regulator to take \u201cappropriate action\u201d and review whether the channel is spreading disinformation, a spokesperson for the prime minister\u2019s office told Reuters.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Senator\u00a0Chris Coons<\/a><\/span>\u00a0(D-Del.) said he was \u201cpersonally struck\u201d by the scale of Russian state-backed media on airwaves and social media while on a trip to Europe this week. He raised\u00a0it as a challenge to keep allies united against Kremlin-sponsored propaganda and disinformation.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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